From the June 27, 2005 issue of Washington Trade Daily:
House supporters of the US-Central America free trade agreement remain far short of the minimum 218 votes needed for approval - and the only way to get those votes appears to be for the Administration to strike a deal on sugar and get tough on China (WTD, 6/24/05).
According to WTD's ongoing informal poll of members' offices, 110 members now say they will or are likely to vote for CAFTA. That number includes 104 Republicans and six Democrats.
Opponents, meanwhile, are within striking distance of bringing the trade pact down. Some 204 members will or are likely to vote against CAFTA - 32 Republicans, 171 Democrats and one Independent.
Despite the sizeable vote shortfall, the Administration opted to start the 90-day legislative clock for final passage by submitting formal implementing legislation (HR 3045, S 1307) to Congress. Under the "fast track" legislative process of Trade Promotion Authority, the House has 60 days to vote. That vote is now expected to take place sometime in July - although supporters had been making noises about holding the vote before the Independence Day recess that begins this Friday.
The Senate has an additional 30 days to act after House passage.
A sizeable pool of members have yet to make up their minds on CAFTA - which gives supporters increased optimism. WTD's poll shows 85 undecided members - 67 Republicans and 18 Democrats. Thirty-five members have not responded.
