The United States Army is making plans to maintain the current number of soldiers in Iraq for the next four years, despite numerous reports that the United States was planning a significant decrease in the number of troops in 2006 and widespread calls for the end to the occupation of Iraq. The Bush administration has repeatedly conditioned any withdrawal of troops on the capacity of Iraqi security forces and the acceptance of new Iraqi constitution, both of which have been cast into doubt with recent violence and the missed deadline for drafting the new constitution.

In the United States, calls for the end to the occupation of Iraq have increased, with the most recent calls coming in response to Cindy Sheehan’s protest outside of Bush’s Crawford ranch. Despite an intensive campaign by the rightwing media to discredit Sheehan, her protest seems to have resonated with large segments of the population upset both with the continued war in Iraq and President George W. Bush (his approval rating is currently only 45%) more generally. Sheehan’s effort, combined with a disastrous month in Iraq, is being credited for pushing towards a “tipping point” on Iraq that is quickly approaching. Even the Bush administration has recently lowered their estimates about what can be achieved in Iraq and are no longer expecting a “model democracy” in Iraq, a self-supporting oil industry, or a society where the majority of people are free from security and economic problems.

Of course, the so-called “tipping point” will only be reached with continued pressure from citizens on politicians. To that end, activists in the antiwar movement are continuing counter-recruiting efforts that directly challenge the military’s capacity to wage the war, are organizing a national antiwar mobilization in September, are making plans to challenge politicians up for reelection in 2006 on the issue of the war, and beginning to draw up detailed plans for withdrawal from Iraq.