...free-trade business groups are pushing for Cafta, and administration officials are combing a "whip list" of more than 50 lawmakers who say their minds aren't made up. "It's full speed ahead," says Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, who has met with some undecided members three or four times. He also has reached outside the Beltway, calling chief executives at pro-Cafta companies and giving interviews to newspapers and radio stations in key states, with the goal of rallying grass-roots support. Daily strategy is plotted on 7:45 a.m. conference calls that bring together officials from the White House, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the departments of Commerce, Treasury, State and Agriculture.

Rep. Bill Thomas, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, has made the most visible contribution in the vote-getting effort. The California Republican pledged to move legislation that would expose China to a new range of trade sanctions, and in return secured the support of Republican Rep. Phil English, a trade critic from Pennsylvania, and perhaps six to eight lawmakers for whom cracking down on China is the deciding issue. Among them is Rep. Todd Platts, a Pennsylvania Republican who says he is now "probably leaning yes."

Read the Full Article

The Bush administration today announced the creation of a new post designed to help combat intellectual property rights violations. The CAFTA vote has featured aggressive efforts by supporters to counter various concerns about free trade on Capitol Hill, and legislation addressing Chinese trading practices is moving in tandem with the CAFTA implementation bill. China's spotty record on intellectual property rights is a major concern of businesses and many legislators, including some who may vote for CAFTA and who have in their districts high-tech firms that are particularly worried about IPR violations ... The newly created position of Coordinator of International Intellectual Property Enforcement will be filled by Chris Israel, currently deputy chief of staff for Commerce Secretary Gutierrez. Israel, who will still report to Gutierrez, will coordinate IPR efforts across several agencies, including Commerce, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the State and the Justice departments.

Unable to sell CAFTA on its merits, desperate Republican supporters have had to resort to the fear factor. Their reasoning appears to be that if you can get Americans jittery enough, they will support pretty much any darn thing.

But since Osama bin Laden is hiding somewhere in the hills of Tora Bora instead of the highlands of Guatemala, Republican free traders have had to strain to conjure up an effective monster. The best they could do was Daniel Ortega. Remember him? He's the former Nicaraguan guerrilla fighter-turned-politician who was voted out of office 15 years ago.

Read the Full Article

At a closed-door meeting of House Republicans yesterday, Rep. Bill Thomas (Calif.) sidled up to the lectern and hinted that the leadership might look more favorably on lawmakers' requests for highways and bridges if they vote for the Central American Free Trade Agreement, according to three GOP witnesses.

"Just to let you know, we're having some problems with the highway bill. It probably won't be finished until after the CAFTA vote," the deadly serious chairman of the Ways and Means Committee said to knowing laughter.

...

According to administration and House aides, the White House has authorized Republican leaders to secure votes with whatever is at hand, from amendments to the highway and energy bills to the still incomplete annual appropriations bills. Side deals may be in the works on textiles and sugar. House leaders have even approved a vote on a slate of punitive China trade provisions that risks alienating a trading partner that dwarfs Central America.

Read the Full Article

Republican leaders and business lobbyists are hoping that the China vote will help gain more votes for CAFTA. There are currently 25 to 28 Republicans opposing CAFTA in the House and a group of 10 undecided Democrats. Both are being aggressively sought by the administration.

Bush argued that CAFTA is important for job creation and that it will help “secure democracy,” keeping with his current argument that CAFTA is a security issue affecting both economic and national security. Despite the fact that this argument has not appeared to resonate well, either with Democrats opposed to the deal or the general public, it is an argument that Bush continues to make. The speech was Bush's most extensive public comment on CAFTA to date.

On the surface, the China and CAFTA issues aren't closely related. The growing U.S. trade deficit with China and the recent bid by a Chinese firm for a U.S. oil company has fed congressional anxiety about Beijing's increasing economic muscle and outrage over practices such as keeping its currency fixed against the U.S. dollar. CAFTA, which would significantly lower trade barriers between the United States and six Latin American countries, has drawn fire for failing to protect worker rights adequately and for threatening U.S. special interests such as the sugar industry.

But House Republican leaders have been forced to confront the prospect that CAFTA might fail to secure enough votes in the House, which would be a devastating setback to President Bush's trade agenda. Lawmakers may think they have enough political "cover" to vote for CAFTA if they have also voted to punish Chinese trade practices -- or so many political analysts believe.

Thomas essentially confirmed that was his strategy. Asked if he expected a vote on the China bill before CAFTA comes to the floor in late July, he said "it is probably a good idea to do it before . . . so we let people express themselves" on the China trade issue first. He said he expected no difficulty getting House Republican leaders to accept his schedule. "I think I can persuade them," Thomas said, smiling.

Democrats, who are almost unanimously opposed to CAFTA, portrayed Thomas's statement as a sign of desperation. "The Republican leadership cannot get the votes to pass CAFTA on its own merits," said Rep. Charles B. Rangel (N.Y.), ranking Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee.

Rangel and other Democrats introduced their own anti-China bill yesterday. Linking such legislation to CAFTA "diminishes the importance of both trade matters and underscores the weakness of the Bush administration's current policy toward trade with China and the major flaws in CAFTA," said Rep. Sander M. Levin (D-Mich.).

The bill endorsed by Thomas and English, which they said was still being prepared yesterday, would authorize the Commerce Department to impose duties on government-subsidized imports from "non-market economies" such as China. Currently, imports from such countries are subject only to anti-dumping penalties, though under rules that make it easier to conclude that dumping has taken place.

Supporters of the free trade agreement with the Dominican Republic and five Central American countries during the congressional recess have failed to sway a significant number of members into supporting the deal, which has opened the door to efforts by the Bush Administration and the congressional leadership to makes specific deals with individual members in return for their votes, according to informed sources.
 
“I do not think there was any movement necessarily by members [over the recess],” Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX) said this week. “The large number of undecideds are still undecided.” He acknowledged that this was the case even as agriculture and business supporters worked intensely in the districts but insisted that supporters of the deal are gaining ground.
 
Business supporters of DR-CAFTA this week were focusing their lobbying efforts on 78 House members, according to a list provided at a July 13 whip meeting. The list shows 46 Republican and 32 Democratic members who business believes can be persuaded to support the DR-CAFTA. But it is clear not every one of them will support the deal, according to one lobbyist. One DR-CAFTA opponent said that this reflects just how many votes the administration is still short of getting the DR-CAFTA passed.

...

Some supporters of DR-CAFTA said a new problem has cropped up with members who had previously signaled their support for the deal, but who are beginning to ask new questions. These members know they can get something for their votes, so they are expressing doubts, one supporter charged.

House Ways and Means Chairman Thomas is pressing GOP leaders to set a date for a vote on the Central America Free Trade Agreement, aiming to signal recalcitrant Republicans that they will have to vote on the controversial trade pact. At a meeting today with pro-CAFTA business lobbyists, Thomas said he was seeking a date for a House floor vote, according to sources present at the meeting. House leaders are eyeing the last week of July for a CAFTA vote, but have not set a firm date. House Republicans were adamant today that the House will vote on CAFTA that week, even though Thomas has not yet filed the committee report that would set in motion a 15-day clock for a House vote to occur. "We will have a vote on CAFTA before the August recess," House Chief Deputy Majority Whip Eric Cantor, R-Va., told reporters following the meeting with lobbyists.

...

The Capitol meeting attended by dozens of lobbyists launched the final stage of efforts to secure enough votes to pass CAFTA. While only five Democrats so far have publicly backed CAFTA, business sources said they have been asked to target an additional 30 who are seen as potential supporters. A House Democratic aide said Democrats are confident they will not lose more than 10 members on the vote. On the Republican side, Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas, acknowledged that grassroots efforts to build support over the recess did little to change the heavy lift for CAFTA supporters, but neither has the pact lost much support as a result of opponents' activities, he said. "The large number of undecideds are still undecided," Brady said.

President Bush and his advisers are beginning a three-week effort to round up House votes for the Central America Free Trade Agreement, culminating in a floor vote the last week of July.




House GOP leaders had discussed bringing CAFTA to the floor as early as next week, but acknowledged Tuesday that the vote would likely be one of the last before the August recess.




"I doubt if we can fit [CAFTA] in next week so it's looking like the end of the month,"House Majority Whip Blunt told CongressDaily.

A number of House Republicans from North Carolina and other textile-producing states are undecided or leaning against the trade pact.


 

Meanwhile, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley briefed a small group of House members Tuesday on the importance of the Central American region and the impact of CAFTA on national security, a White House official said.




Administration officials cannot afford to leave any stone unturned as they hunt votes for the agreement, which is opposed by all but a handful of House Democrats and faces greater Republican opposition than any trade agreement in years.




"The interest from the administration and from leadership has been as intense as I've seen it," said Rep. John Sweeney, R-N.Y., who is undecided on the pact.

When asked about the Central American Free Trade Agreement per se just half of respondents (50%) said they favor Congress approving it. In stark contrast to the partisan polarization in Congress, support did not differ by party affiliation—50% of Republicans were in favor, as were 51% of Democrats. The recent Senate vote on CAFTA, however, showed 78% of Republicans in favor and 73% of Democrats opposed.

Most striking, when asked, “Suppose the US government, as part of CAFTA, were to commit to substantially increase federal spending on programs to help American workers who lose their jobs, and to make sure that Central American countries enforce health and safety standards for their workers” then support for CAFTA jumped to 65%. Here too there is a remarkable amount of bipartisan consensus. With these provisions support for CAFTA jumped to 61% among Republicans and 73% among Democrats.

More than a year after signing, President Bush finally sent the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) to the U.S. Congress for vote. On June 30, the Senate approved the agreement by a 54-45 vote.

The reason for the unusual wait time between signing CAFTA and the Congressional vote is simply explained-the president didn't have the votes to pass his pet trade project. Fearing a demoralizing setback, the unpopular treaty sat in the wings.